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Can Ukraine save itself?
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Zelensky warned last week at the Munich Security Conference that he would “never accept deals made behind our backs without our involvement.” But if Trump walks away, Zelensky would have to decide whether to fight on without US arms and ammunition and to rely on Europe’s lesser punch.
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Zelensky understands that he can’t count on US support with Trump in the White House and said last week it was time to form a European army because, “the old days are over when America supported Europe just because it always had.”
Trump has given few signs that he’s got Ukraine’s interests at heart. Last week, for instance, he echoed one of Putin’s rationales for the war, saying that Ukraine’s NATO aspirations helped trigger Russia’s invasion.
This new US empathy with the invader, rather than the invaded party, is why Europe’s participation in peace talks is necessary to even the playing field. But Trump is already looking beyond Zelensky, who was the recipient of the telephone call that led to Trump’s first impeachment in his first term. He said last week that Ukraine needs elections “at some point” after a peace deal and archly noted that Zelensky’s poll numbers were “not great.” This is another Russian talking point that Trump has picked up — even though the idea that Putin, who sustains his long rule with sham elections, has any credibility in talking about elections is absurd.
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Trump’s rush for a deal with Putin leaves Ukraine and Europe scrambling
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This tension was exacerbated by the president’s decision to exclude officials from Kyiv and European powers from US-Russia talks taking place in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday.
The fate of his push to end the war will ultimately rest on whether his swift pace can accommodate critical details of a peace that allows Ukraine to survive, secures the borders and security of Europe and avoids rewarding Russia’s illegal invasion.
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Trump has shown little obvious concern for any of these three goals – one reason why his strategy is a gamble.
But each party in the process has grave concerns and significant leverage, which explains why ending the war will be far harder than his failed campaign trail promises to forge peace in 24 hours.
Trump wants a deal – perhaps any deal
The war often seems a distraction from what Trump really wants – the chance to sit down with Putin, one of the global strongmen he admires.
Still, there’s a chance that Trump’s urgency and power, plus that channel with the Russian leader, could change the dynamics of this World War I-style war of attrition.
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